Jolovic paper on traffic models honored by ITS World Congress

By developing a method to translate data from microsimulation software to a traditional coordinate system, Garver Project Engineer Dusan Jolovic, Ph.D., displayed that crash prediction models can be used to predict the frequency of traffic accidents. Jolovic’s findings were outlined in a paper he co-authored, titled Spatial and Statistical Techniques to Assess Various Types of Field Traffic Crashes and the Microsimulation Surrogate Measures of Safety, which was named Best Scientific Paper in the Americas Region at the ITS World Congress, a showcase for the latest in ITS advancements held recently in Copenhagen, Denmark.

Completed as part of Jolovic’s Ph.D. dissertation at New Mexico State University, the technique presented by Jolovic and two others to translate conflict point coordinates from microsimulation software to a traditional coordinate system allowed for the discovery of correlation between field crash data and simulated conflicts. By using traffic flow simulation software and SSAM post processor to obtain simulated conflicts, and traffic data collected over an 11-year period, the analysis showed that their technique for spatial matching of conflicts and crashes has a promising potential, as did results from the crash prediction models.

“As traffic engineers, we’re constantly looking for ways to curb accidents, and one way to do that is to determine how, when, and why they occur in the first place,” Jolovic said. “That knowledge can then lead to traffic solutions that increase safety by considerably reducing the likelihood for accidents.”

After developing prediction models for rear-end, lane change and crossing crash types for both signalized and arterial linked intersections, the paper determined that conflict-based crash prediction models can be used to predict the expected number of crashes with high accuracy, and that data can be used to evaluate design projects for safety and operational efficiency.

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